4 modules

Transformative Scenario Planning: Creating Your Strategic Foresight Literacy for Future Challenges

Online: Batch 2

7 - 28 August 2021

4 Weeks (Saturday)
Apply before 1 August 2021

15,000 THB


Course Overview

The COVID19 pandemic is producing large complex perturbations to all societies along many dimensions, not only medical but also economic, political, social, and technological area. It is unlikely that the postCOVID world will revert to the status quo ante. As a consequence, short, mediumand longterm futures are increasingly unpredictable and therefore also increasingly influenceable. Traditional way of foresight that relies on the experts, creating their own assumptions without holistic perspective cannot be a tool to address the challenges posed by this situation. We are facing substantial uncertainty, where realizing the next normal is the critical basis.

The external environment changes rapidly and unpredictably. What worked yesterday won’t work tomorrow. To prepare to operate in this higher level of complexity, strategic plan need to be proved for the chances of business survival. We cannot predict the future but we can definitely shape the future of our businesses. Scenario planning as one of the strategic foresight tools can help us take a long view in a world of great uncertainty. Focusing on identifying driving forces, scenarios can reveal how the future will play out and can navigate your organization successfully as well as increase a strong level of resilience.

Scenario planning is a method of direction-finding and strategy formation that defines itself by non-prediction.           A scenario is a story about what could happen: an internally-consistent hypothesis about the future that is relevant, challenging, plausible, and clear. It is not a story about what will happen (a forecast or prediction) and not a story about what should happen (a vision or proposal or plan). Scenarios are a tool for communicating about and working with an unpredictable future. Based on a transformative and collaborative process, Transformative Scenario Planning invites multiple framings of an uncertain situation, making scenario learners more aware and conscious of the situation to make sense of the world. 

Formulating strategy under uncertainty is a central challenge facing organizations. The adoption of difficult-to-change hypotheses about the future becomes critical. This course will enable a contestation of the future in your organizations that allowed better decisions and help you and your organization to create a healthy strategic conversation that allows stakeholders to consider ideas that are not familiar to them, and to compete uncertainty and challenges in a Turbulent-Uncertain-Novel-Ambiguous (TUNA) world.

On this program, learners will learn how to develop robust strategies in the face of numerous plausible futures using Transformative Scenario Planning

Learners will cover a broad range of themes, including:

  • The fundamental of strategic foresight

  • Differentiation between foresight and forecast, prediction, and planning

  • Principles of Transformative Scenario Planning

  • Constructing a scenario framework

  • The relationship between strategic planning and scenarios

  • Building an understanding of how this approach can benefit your strategic thinking capability

  • How to improve a sense of adaptability to whatever future does manifest

  • How to gain advantage by leveraging the uncertainty of the future

Core Instructors

Asst.Prof. Kallaya

Tantiyaswasdikul, Ph.D.

Associate Dean for Academic Development of Thammasat’s Faculty of Architecture and Planning,

Committee and Facilitator at Scenario Thailand Foundation

Kallaya designs and facilitates Transformative Scenario Planning process for personal and organizational change to meet complex challenges.

Kallaya is a trained Foresight Specialist from Saïd Business School, University of Oxford, and a designer and facilitator of Transformative Scenario Planning at the Scenario Thailand Foundation. She has diverse work experience in both of academic and non-profit organizations, combining over a decade of experience in design thinking and foresight with research and practice in personal and organizational change to encourage individuals and groups to break through challenging situations.

Since 2015, Kallaya has trained and worked with Adam Kahane, an international consultant, designing   and facilitating solutions for complex challenges with multi-stakeholders. Kallaya is a translator of “Collaborating with the Enemy: How to work with people you don’t agree with or like or trust” and “Facilitating Breakthrough: How to remove obstacles, bridge differences, and move forward together,”  the latest book of Adam Kahane.

Who should attend​

Policy makers

aspiring to create     strategic plan

Leader

seeking to enhance strategic thinking capability

Manager

looking to imaginative tools to dealing with uncertainties

Business owner

who want to learn how to engage their employees with gameful experiences.

Startup entrepreneurs

wanting to develop their ideas to meet future need

Executives

seeking understanding about future challenges

Module 1

Saturday, 7th August 2021

Fundamental of strategic foresight: Why thinking about future is important

Learners will discover:

  • Definition and terminology of strategic foresight
  • Background and the importance of future studies
  • Strategic foresight methodology
  • Case study
  • Transformative Scenario Planning for strategic foresight

Guest speaker's topic

Unpredictable future: Economic challenges facing us

Instructor

Asst.Prof. Kallaya Tantiyaswasdikul, Ph.D.

Associate Dean for Academic Development of Thammasat’s Faculty of Architecture and Planning,

Committee and Facilitator at Scenario Thailand Foundation

Asst.Prof. Chol Bunnag

Assistant Professor at Faculty of Economics, Thammasat University Director, SDG Move

Module 2

Saturday, 14th August 2021

Scenario planning process

Learners will discover:

  • How to systematically detect early sights of potential threats and opportunities
  • Environmental scanning
  • Trends analysis
  • Identifying driving forces
  • How to identify critical uncertainties
  • Building blocks of scenarios

Guest speaker's topic

Trend analysis and case study

Instructor

Asst.Prof. Kallaya Tantiyaswasdikul, Ph.D.

Associate Dean for Academic Development of Thammasat’s Faculty of Architecture and Planning,

Committee and Facilitator at Scenario Thailand Foundation

Dr. Chavatip Chindavijak

Senior Vice President, MASCI-Management System Certification Institute (Thailand)

Module 3

Saturday, 21st August 2021

Scenario storytelling and what lies beneath

Learners will discover:

  • Constructing a scenario framework
  • How to create a scenario storytelling
  • The art of storytelling and techniques
  • The relationship between strategic planning and scenarios

Guest speaker's topic

Future scenarios: Case study of design business

Instructor

Asst.Prof. Kallaya Tantiyaswasdikul, Ph.D.

Associate Dean for Academic Development of Thammasat’s Faculty of Architecture and Planning,

Committee and Facilitator at Scenario Thailand Foundation

Jun Sekino

CEO, Jun Sekino Architect & Design

Module 4

Saturday, 28th August 2021

Strategic reframing: How to make strategic decisions given the uncertainty of the future

Learners will discover:

  • Strategic reframing
  • Strategic planning model

Instructor

Asst.Prof. Kallaya Tantiyaswasdikul, Ph.D.

Associate Dean for Academic Development of Thammasat’s Faculty of Architecture and Planning,

Committee and Facilitator at Scenario Thailand Foundation

Become a Strategic Planner

Fully Certified Program by
Thammasat University

Confirmed Participants

Alumni