4 modules
Transformative Scenario Planning: Creating Your Strategic Foresight Literacy for Future Challenges
Course Overview
The COVID–19 pandemic is producing large complex perturbations to all societies along many dimensions, not only medical but also economic, political, social, and technological area. It is unlikely that the post–COVID world will revert to the status quo ante. As a consequence, short–, medium– and long–term futures are increasingly unpredictable and therefore also increasingly influenceable. Traditional way of foresight that relies on the experts, creating their own assumptions without holistic perspective cannot be a tool to address the challenges posed by this situation. We are facing substantial uncertainty, where realizing the next normal is the critical basis.
The external environment changes rapidly and unpredictably. What worked yesterday won’t work tomorrow. To prepare to operate in this higher level of complexity, strategic plan need to be proved for the chances of business survival. We cannot predict the future but we can definitely shape the future of our businesses. Scenario planning as one of the strategic foresight tools can help us take a long view in a world of great uncertainty. Focusing on identifying driving forces, scenarios can reveal how the future will play out and can navigate your organization successfully as well as increase a strong level of resilience.
Scenario planning is a method of direction-finding and strategy formation that defines itself by non-prediction. A scenario is a story about what could happen: an internally-consistent hypothesis about the future that is relevant, challenging, plausible, and clear. It is not a story about what will happen (a forecast or prediction) and not a story about what should happen (a vision or proposal or plan). Scenarios are a tool for communicating about and working with an unpredictable future. Based on a transformative and collaborative process, Transformative Scenario Planning invites multiple framings of an uncertain situation, making scenario learners more aware and conscious of the situation to make sense of the world.
Formulating strategy under uncertainty is a central challenge facing organizations. The adoption of difficult-to-change hypotheses about the future becomes critical. This course will enable a contestation of the future in your organizations that allowed better decisions and help you and your organization to create a healthy strategic conversation that allows stakeholders to consider ideas that are not familiar to them, and to compete uncertainty and challenges in a Turbulent-Uncertain-Novel-Ambiguous (TUNA) world.
On this program, learners will learn how to develop robust strategies in the face of numerous plausible futures using Transformative Scenario Planning
Learners will cover a broad range of themes, including:
The fundamental of strategic foresight
Differentiation between foresight and forecast, prediction, and planning
Principles of Transformative Scenario Planning
Constructing a scenario framework
The relationship between strategic planning and scenarios
Building an understanding of how this approach can benefit your strategic thinking capability
How to improve a sense of adaptability to whatever future does manifest
How to gain advantage by leveraging the uncertainty of the future
Core Instructors
Asst.Prof. Kallaya
Tantiyaswasdikul, Ph.D.
Associate Dean for Academic Development of Thammasat’s Faculty of Architecture and Planning,
Committee and Facilitator at
Scenario Thailand Foundation
Kallaya designs and facilitates Transformative Scenario Planning process for personal and organizational change to meet complex challenges.
Kallaya is a trained Foresight Specialist from Saïd Business School, University of Oxford, and a designer and facilitator of Transformative Scenario Planning at the Scenario Thailand Foundation. She has diverse work experience in both of academic and non-profit organizations, combining over a decade of experience in design thinking and foresight with research and practice in personal and organizational change to encourage individuals and groups to break through challenging situations.
Since 2015, Kallaya has trained and worked with Adam Kahane, an international consultant, designing and facilitating solutions for complex challenges with multi-stakeholders. Kallaya is a translator of “Collaborating with the Enemy: How to work with people you don’t agree with or like or trust” and “Facilitating Breakthrough: How to remove obstacles, bridge differences, and move forward together,” the latest book of Adam Kahane.
Who should attend
Policy makers
aspiring to create strategic plan
Leader
seeking to enhance strategic thinking capability
Manager
looking to imaginative tools to dealing with uncertainties
Business owner
who want to learn how to engage their employees with gameful experiences.
Startup entrepreneurs
wanting to develop their ideas to meet future need
Executives
seeking understanding about future challenges
What our Learners Think
Module 1
Sunday, 3rd July2022
(13.00-18.00 pm)
Fundamental of strategic foresight: Why thinking about future is important
Learners will discover:
- Definition and terminology of strategic foresight
- Background and the importance of future studies
- Strategic foresight methodology
- Case studies
- Strategic foresight process
Guest speaker's topic
Post COVID-19 Challenges
Instructor
Asst.Prof. Kallaya Tantiyaswasdikul, Ph.D.
Associate Dean for Academic Development of Thammasat’s Faculty of Architecture and Planning,
Committee and Facilitator at
Scenario Thailand Foundation
Module 2
Sunday, 10th July 2022
(13.00-18.00 pm)
Scenario planning process
Learners will discover:
- Transformative Scenario Planning for strategic foresight
- How to systematically detect early sights of potential threats and opportunities
- Environmental scanning
- Trends analysis
- Identifying driving forces
- How to identify critical uncertainties
Guest speaker's topic
Trend analysis and case study
Instructor
Asst.Prof. Kallaya Tantiyaswasdikul, Ph.D.
Associate Dean for Academic Development of Thammasat’s Faculty of Architecture and Planning,
Committee and Facilitator at
Scenario Thailand Foundation
Dr. Chavatip Chindavijak
Senior Vice President, MASCI-Management System Certification Institute (Thailand)
Module 3
Sunday, 17th July 2022
(13.00-18.00 pm)
Scenario storytelling and what lies beneath
Learners will discover:
- Building blocks of scenarios
- Constructing a scenario framework
- How to create a scenario storytelling
- The art of storytelling and techniques
Guest speaker's topic
Scenario Planning Insights
Instructor
Asst.Prof. Kallaya Tantiyaswasdikul, Ph.D.
Associate Dean for Academic Development of Thammasat’s Faculty of Architecture and Planning,
Committee and Facilitator at
Scenario Thailand Foundation
Dr. Chavatip Chindavijak
Senior Vice President, MASCI-Management System Certification Institute (Thailand)
Module 4
Sunday, 24th July 2022
(13.00-18.00 pm)
Strategic reframing: How to make strategic decisions given the uncertainty of the future
Learners will discover:
- The relationship between strategic planning and scenarios
- Strategic reframing
Guest speaker's topic
Strategic Planning Insights
Instructor
Asst.Prof. Kallaya Tantiyaswasdikul, Ph.D.
Associate Dean for Academic Development of Thammasat’s Faculty of Architecture and Planning,
Committee and Facilitator at
Scenario Thailand Foundation
Dr. Chavatip Chindavijak
Senior Vice President, MASCI-Management System Certification Institute (Thailand)
Module 5
Sunday, 31th July 2022
(13.00-17.00 pm)
Strategic reframing: How to make strategic decisions given the uncertainty of the future
Learners will discover:
- Strategic planning model
- Conclusion
Instructor
Asst.Prof. Kallaya Tantiyaswasdikul, Ph.D.
Associate Dean for Academic Development of Thammasat’s Faculty of Architecture and Planning,
Committee and Facilitator at
Scenario Thailand Foundation
Become a Strategic Planner
Fully Certified Program by
Thammasat University
Confirmed Participants
Alumni
Module 4
Sunday, 6th March 2022
Strategic reframing: How to make strategic decisions given the uncertainty of the future
Learners will discover:
- Strategic reframing
- Strategic planning model
Guest speaker's topic
Strategic Planning Insights